Elon Musk says demand for the Model S and Model X could hit 100,000 cars a year
15:06
In a recent interview with NPR’s Marketplace host, Kai Ryssdal, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that demand for the Model S and Model X – the company’s sedan and SUV offerings – could reach 100,000 cars a year.
“I think the demand for the Model 3 is going to be very good,” Musk told Ryssdal. “As it is, we’ve got pretty good demand for the X and the S. And I think over time, the combined X and S demand is, you know, maybe a hundred thousand units per year, or maybe a bit more as we mature various markets.”
Sometimes with Musk’s pronouncements, it is as important to hear what he doesn’t say as what he does say. One detail he left out is when that demand will materialize. Musk promised earlier this year that Tesla would deliver 50,000 to 55,000 cars in 2015. However, it will need to build and deliver 17,000 cars in the 4th quarter for that to happen. That is about 4,000 more than in any quarter so far.
The 100,000 number is the theoretical limit for Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, where two state of the art production lines are now ready to build cars. Because both lines use so many computer controlled robots, the factory can build either the Model S sedan or Model X SUV on both lines and adjust the mix between the two instantaneously to satisfy market demand.
However, some analysts say there has been a softening in demand for the Model S sedan lately. For instance, only 5,400 of them were delivered in North America last quarter, compared to 6,900 in the first quarter of the year. The company claims to have nearly 30,000 reservations for its Model X SUV, but lack of availability and higher than expected prices may lead many of those reservation holders to rethink their plans.
Tesla began a customer referral program for the Model S this year, a move that strongly suggests the company is getting fewer orders for the car than it anticipated. Tesla prides itself on not paying for advertising, relying on word of mouth instead. But there is some question about how effective that strategy will be in the long term, after the initial excitement about Telsa’s luxury electric cars is over.
